SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wrexham win with a probability of 52.95%. A win for Crawley Town had a probability of 24.08% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wrexham win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.29%) and 2-0 (8.45%). The likeliest Crawley Town win was 1-2 (6.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.72%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Wrexham would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Wrexham | Draw | Crawley Town |
52.95% ( 1.39) | 22.98% ( -0.56) | 24.08% ( -0.83) |
| Both teams to score 57.41% ( 0.96) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.13% ( 1.7) | 42.87% ( -1.7) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.73% ( 1.67) | 65.27% ( -1.67) |
| Wrexham Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.81% ( 1.13) | 16.19% ( -1.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 54.33% ( 2.01) | 45.67% ( -2.01) |
| Crawley Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.5% ( 0.22) | 31.5% ( -0.23) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.11% ( 0.26) | 67.89% ( -0.26) |
| Score Analysis |
| Wrexham | Draw | Crawley Town |
| 2-1 @ 9.77% ( 0.07) 1-0 @ 9.29% ( -0.35)2-0 @ 8.45% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 5.93% ( 0.26)3-0 @ 5.13% ( 0.19)3-2 @ 3.42% ( 0.17)4-1 @ 2.7% ( 0.21)4-0 @ 2.34% ( 0.17)4-2 @ 1.56% ( 0.13)5-1 @ 0.98% ( 0.11)Other @ 3.39% Total : 52.95% | 1-1 @ 10.72% ( -0.34) 2-2 @ 5.64% ( 0.07)0-0 @ 5.1% ( -0.39)3-3 @ 1.32% ( 0.07)Other @ 0.19% Total : 22.97% | 1-2 @ 6.2% ( -0.15) 0-1 @ 5.89% ( -0.42)0-2 @ 3.4% ( -0.22)1-3 @ 2.39% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 2.17% ( 0.04)0-3 @ 1.31% ( -0.08)Other @ 2.72% Total : 24.08% |
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