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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Crawley Town win with a probability of 39.49%. A win for Newport County had a probability of 36.43% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Crawley Town win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.41%) and 0-2 (5.77%). The likeliest Newport County win was 2-1 (8.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.02%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Crawley Town would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Newport County | Draw | Crawley Town |
36.43% ( 0.06) | 24.07% ( 0) | 39.49% ( -0.06) |
| Both teams to score 61.12% ( -0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.7% ( -0.02) | 41.29% ( 0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.31% ( -0.02) | 63.69% ( 0.02) |
| Newport County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.42% ( 0.02) | 22.58% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.82% ( 0.03) | 56.18% ( -0.03) |
| Crawley Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.94% ( -0.04) | 21.05% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.14% ( -0.06) | 53.86% ( 0.06) |
| Score Analysis |
| Newport County | Draw | Crawley Town |
| 2-1 @ 8.2% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 7.07% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 5.26% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 4.07% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 3.17% ( 0)3-0 @ 2.61% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 1.51% ( 0)4-2 @ 1.18% ( 0)4-0 @ 0.97% ( 0)Other @ 2.38% Total : 36.43% | 1-1 @ 11.02% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 6.39% ( -0)0-0 @ 4.75% ( 0)3-3 @ 1.65% ( -0)Other @ 0.26% Total : 24.07% | 1-2 @ 8.59% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 7.41% ( -0)0-2 @ 5.77% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 4.46% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 3.32% ( -0)0-3 @ 3% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.74% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 1.29% ( -0)0-4 @ 1.17% ( -0)Other @ 2.75% Total : 39.49% |
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