Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Academico de Viseu win with a probability of 40.98%. A win for Uniao de Leiria had a probability of 32.19% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an Academico de Viseu win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.57%) and 2-0 (7.38%). The likeliest Uniao de Leiria win was 0-1 (9.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.73%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood.
0.16) 
-0.17) 
