SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 69.53%. A draw had a probability of 15.6% and a win for Shakhtar Donetsk had a probability of 14.81%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (7.91%) and 2-0 (6.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.85%), while for a Shakhtar Donetsk win it was 1-2 (3.79%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Ajax | Draw | Shakhtar Donetsk |
69.53% ( 3.46) | 15.65% ( -1.23) | 14.81% ( -2.23) |
| Both teams to score 68.42% ( -0.34) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 78.22% ( 1.64) | 21.78% ( -1.65) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 59.4% ( 2.23) | 40.59% ( -2.24) |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 94.2% ( 1) | 5.79% ( -1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 77.69% ( 2.77) | 22.3% ( -2.78) |
| Shakhtar Donetsk Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.62% ( -1.14) | 27.37% ( 1.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.16% ( -1.5) | 62.83% ( 1.5) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ajax | Draw | Shakhtar Donetsk |
| 2-1 @ 8.34% ( -0.29) 3-1 @ 7.91% ( 0.19)2-0 @ 6.43% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 6.11% ( 0.33)4-1 @ 5.64% ( 0.44)3-2 @ 5.13% ( -0.04)1-0 @ 4.52% ( -0.28)4-0 @ 4.35% ( 0.47)4-2 @ 3.65% ( 0.18)5-1 @ 3.21% ( 0.42)5-0 @ 2.48% ( 0.39)5-2 @ 2.08% ( 0.21)4-3 @ 1.58% ( 0.03)6-1 @ 1.52% ( 0.27)6-0 @ 1.18% ( 0.24)6-2 @ 0.99% ( 0.15)Other @ 4.43% Total : 69.53% | 1-1 @ 5.85% ( -0.56) 2-2 @ 5.4% ( -0.37)3-3 @ 2.21% ( -0.09)0-0 @ 1.59% ( -0.2)Other @ 0.6% Total : 15.65% | 1-2 @ 3.79% ( -0.5) 2-3 @ 2.33% ( -0.24)0-1 @ 2.06% ( -0.33)1-3 @ 1.64% ( -0.28)0-2 @ 1.33% ( -0.27)Other @ 3.67% Total : 14.81% |
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