SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | AZ Alkmaar | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Ajax | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Cambuur | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 14 | 30 | 35 |
| 2 | Dynamo Kiev | 14 | 28 | 35 |
| 3 | Zorya Luhansk | 14 | 17 | 29 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 68.47%. A draw had a probability of 17.2% and a win for Shakhtar Donetsk had a probability of 14.36%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.79%) and 3-1 (7.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.54%), while for a Shakhtar Donetsk win it was 1-2 (4.04%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Ajax | Draw | Shakhtar Donetsk |
68.47% ( -0.73) | 17.18% ( 0.34) | 14.36% ( 0.4) |
| Both teams to score 60.35% ( -0.23) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 69.19% ( -0.78) | 30.8% ( 0.78) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 47.84% ( -0.93) | 52.15% ( 0.93) |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.78% ( -0.35) | 8.22% ( 0.35) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 71.24% ( -0.88) | 28.75% ( 0.89) |
| Shakhtar Donetsk Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.75% ( -0) | 34.25% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.05% ( -0.01) | 70.95% ( 0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ajax | Draw | Shakhtar Donetsk |
| 2-1 @ 9.42% ( 0.09) 2-0 @ 8.79% ( 0.08)3-1 @ 7.84% ( -0.07)3-0 @ 7.32% ( -0.06)1-0 @ 7.03% ( 0.18)4-1 @ 4.9% ( -0.13)4-0 @ 4.57% ( -0.12)3-2 @ 4.2% ( -0.04)4-2 @ 2.63% ( -0.07)5-1 @ 2.45% ( -0.11)5-0 @ 2.29% ( -0.1)5-2 @ 1.31% ( -0.06)6-1 @ 1.02% ( -0.06)6-0 @ 0.95% ( -0.06)4-3 @ 0.94% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.81% Total : 68.47% | 1-1 @ 7.54% ( 0.2) 2-2 @ 5.05% ( 0.04)0-0 @ 2.82% ( 0.12)3-3 @ 1.5% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.28% Total : 17.18% | 1-2 @ 4.04% ( 0.1) 0-1 @ 3.02% ( 0.13)2-3 @ 1.8% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 1.62% ( 0.07)1-3 @ 1.44% ( 0.04)Other @ 2.44% Total : 14.36% |
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