Alaves were impressive in their last home match against Sevilla, and we are expecting them to be a difficult side to beat at Mendizorrotza Stadium this season. Valencia are still short of firepower, so we can see a low-scoring draw taking place this weekend.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alaves win with a probability of 35.74%. A win for Valencia had a probability of 33.99% and a draw had a probability of 30.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Alaves win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.09%) and 2-0 (6.98%). The likeliest Valencia win was 0-1 (12.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.51%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Alaves in this match.
-0.34) 
0.44) 
