After playing out a 1-1 draw in the first leg, we expect Thursday's contest to be another close-fought encounter, but we think home advantage could prove decisive for an Alaves side that have lost just one league game at Mendizorroza this season, and as a result, we expect them to claim a narrow victory against Eibar in the second leg.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alaves win with a probability of 40.22%. A draw had a probability of 30.8% and a win for Eibar had a probability of 28.96%.
The most likely scoreline for an Alaves win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.31%) and 2-1 (7.32%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.86%), while for a Eibar win it was 0-1 (12.2%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Alaves would win this match.
0.77) 
-0.85) 
