SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 49.06%. A win for SC Farense had a probability of 27.41% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.74%) and 2-0 (7.63%). The likeliest SC Farense win was 1-2 (6.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.91%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Arouca in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Arouca.
| Result | ||
| Arouca | Draw | SC Farense |
49.06% ( 0.21) | 23.53% ( -0.05) | 27.41% ( -0.16) |
| Both teams to score 58.85% ( 0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.53% ( 0.1) | 42.46% ( -0.1) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.13% ( 0.1) | 64.87% ( -0.1) |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.53% ( 0.12) | 17.46% ( -0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 52.06% ( 0.2) | 47.94% ( -0.2) |
| SC Farense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.3% ( -0.06) | 28.69% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.48% ( -0.08) | 64.52% ( 0.08) |
| Score Analysis |
| Arouca | Draw | SC Farense |
| 2-1 @ 9.53% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 8.74% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 7.63% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 5.54% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 4.44% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 3.46% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 2.42% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 1.94% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 1.51% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.86% Total : 49.06% | 1-1 @ 10.91% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 5.95% ( -0)0-0 @ 5.01% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 1.44% ( 0)Other @ 0.21% Total : 23.52% | 1-2 @ 6.82% ( -0.03) 0-1 @ 6.26% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 3.91% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 2.84% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 2.48% ( -0)0-3 @ 1.63% ( -0.02)Other @ 3.5% Total : 27.41% |
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