SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 42.12%. A win for Chaves had a probability of 31.66% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.79%) and 0-2 (7.41%). The likeliest Chaves win was 1-0 (8.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.47%). The actual scoreline of 1-5 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Arouca would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Chaves | Draw | Arouca |
31.66% ( -0.02) | 26.22% ( -0.01) | 42.12% ( 0.03) |
| Both teams to score 52.51% ( 0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.06% ( 0.03) | 51.94% ( -0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.32% ( 0.03) | 73.68% ( -0.03) |
| Chaves Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.47% | 30.53% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.25% ( 0) | 66.75% ( -0) |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.58% ( 0.03) | 24.42% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.15% ( 0.04) | 58.84% ( -0.04) |
| Score Analysis |
| Chaves | Draw | Arouca |
| 1-0 @ 8.85% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 7.4% ( -0)2-0 @ 5.25% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 2.93% ( -0)3-0 @ 2.08% ( -0)3-2 @ 2.06% ( 0)Other @ 3.11% Total : 31.66% | 1-1 @ 12.47% 0-0 @ 7.46% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 5.22% ( 0)3-3 @ 0.97% ( 0)Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.22% | 0-1 @ 10.51% 1-2 @ 8.79% ( 0)0-2 @ 7.41% ( 0)1-3 @ 4.13% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 3.48% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 2.45% ( 0)1-4 @ 1.46% ( 0)0-4 @ 1.23% ( 0)Other @ 2.66% Total : 42.12% |
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