Chaves have shown important signs of improvement in recent weeks and will be desperate to move within touching distance of safety with a home win on Friday, but they meet an Arouca side who are full of momentum and playing at their best, and we see the visitors being too strong and making it six wins from a seven-match span.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 42.12%. A win for Chaves had a probability of 31.66% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.79%) and 0-2 (7.41%). The likeliest Chaves win was 1-0 (8.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.47%). The actual scoreline of 1-5 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Arouca would win this match.
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