SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 71.23%. A draw had a probability of 17.2% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 11.56%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.73%) and 1-2 (9.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.11%), while for an Arouca win it was 1-0 (3.45%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with an 9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Arouca | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
11.56% ( 0.17) | 17.21% ( 0.26) | 71.23% ( -0.43) |
| Both teams to score 51.18% ( -0.4) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.7% ( -0.81) | 38.3% ( 0.81) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.42% ( -0.86) | 60.58% ( 0.86) |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 56.57% ( -0.25) | 43.43% ( 0.25) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 20.35% ( -0.21) | 79.65% ( 0.21) |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.47% ( -0.31) | 9.52% ( 0.31) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 68.08% ( -0.73) | 31.92% ( 0.73) |
| Score Analysis |
| Arouca | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
| 1-0 @ 3.45% ( 0.11) 2-1 @ 3.38% ( 0.04)2-0 @ 1.44% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 1.11% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 0.94% ( 0)Other @ 1.25% Total : 11.56% | 1-1 @ 8.11% ( 0.14) 0-0 @ 4.14% ( 0.16)2-2 @ 3.98% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.98% Total : 17.21% | 0-2 @ 11.43% ( 0.12) 0-1 @ 9.73% ( 0.24)1-2 @ 9.54% ( 0.04)0-3 @ 8.96% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 7.47% ( -0.08)0-4 @ 5.27% ( -0.09)1-4 @ 4.39% ( -0.11)2-3 @ 3.12% ( -0.05)0-5 @ 2.48% ( -0.08)1-5 @ 2.07% ( -0.08)2-4 @ 1.83% ( -0.06)0-6 @ 0.97% ( -0.04)Other @ 3.97% Total : 71.22% |
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