SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 42.3%. A win for Casa Pia had a probability of 30.32% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.56%) and 0-2 (7.95%). The likeliest Casa Pia win was 1-0 (9.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.92%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Casa Pia | Draw | Arouca |
30.32% ( -0.71) | 27.38% ( 0.02) | 42.3% ( 0.7) |
| Both teams to score 48.41% ( -0.34) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.08% ( -0.29) | 56.91% ( 0.29) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.17% ( -0.24) | 77.83% ( 0.23) |
| Casa Pia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.94% ( -0.67) | 34.05% ( 0.67) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.26% ( -0.73) | 70.74% ( 0.73) |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.41% ( 0.23) | 26.58% ( -0.24) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.19% ( 0.31) | 61.8% ( -0.31) |
| Score Analysis |
| Casa Pia | Draw | Arouca |
| 1-0 @ 9.75% ( -0.07) 2-1 @ 6.96% ( -0.13)2-0 @ 5.25% ( -0.14)3-1 @ 2.5% ( -0.09)3-0 @ 1.89% ( -0.09)3-2 @ 1.66% ( -0.05)Other @ 2.32% Total : 30.32% | 1-1 @ 12.92% 0-0 @ 9.05% ( 0.1)2-2 @ 4.61% ( -0.06)Other @ 0.8% Total : 27.38% | 0-1 @ 11.99% ( 0.21) 1-2 @ 8.56% ( 0.05)0-2 @ 7.95% ( 0.19)1-3 @ 3.78% ( 0.05)0-3 @ 3.51% ( 0.11)2-3 @ 2.04% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.25% ( 0.02)0-4 @ 1.16% ( 0.04)Other @ 2.06% Total : 42.29% |
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