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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 65.71%. A draw had a probability of 20.3% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 13.94%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-2 with a probability of 12.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (12.12%) and 1-2 (9.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.67%), while for an Arouca win it was 1-0 (4.81%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Arouca | Draw | Porto |
13.94% ( -0.04) | 20.35% ( -0.02) | 65.71% ( 0.06) |
| Both teams to score 47.61% ( -0.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.25% ( -0) | 46.75% ( 0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.99% ( -0.01) | 69.01% ( 0.01) |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 54.97% ( -0.06) | 45.03% ( 0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 19.04% ( -0.05) | 80.95% ( 0.06) |
| Porto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.6% ( 0.02) | 13.39% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 59.68% ( 0.03) | 40.32% ( -0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Arouca | Draw | Porto |
| 1-0 @ 4.81% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 3.86% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 1.92% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 1.03% ( -0)3-1 @ 1.03% ( -0)Other @ 1.29% Total : 13.94% | 1-1 @ 9.67% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 6.03% ( 0)2-2 @ 3.88% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.77% Total : 20.35% | 0-2 @ 12.18% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 12.12% ( 0.01)1-2 @ 9.72% ( -0)0-3 @ 8.17% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 6.52% ( 0)0-4 @ 4.11% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 3.28% ( 0)2-3 @ 2.6% ( -0)0-5 @ 1.65% ( 0.01)1-5 @ 1.32% ( 0)2-4 @ 1.31% ( -0)Other @ 2.73% Total : 65.7% |
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