SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 39.1%. A win for SC Farense had a probability of 34.42% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.43%) and 0-2 (6.8%). The likeliest SC Farense win was 1-0 (9.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.59%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that SC Farense would win this match.
| Result | ||
| SC Farense | Draw | Arouca |
34.42% ( 1.19) | 26.48% ( 0.31) | 39.1% ( -1.51) |
| Both teams to score 52.44% ( -0.74) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.63% ( -1.07) | 52.36% ( 1.07) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.95% ( -0.93) | 74.05% ( 0.93) |
| SC Farense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.05% ( 0.23) | 28.94% ( -0.23) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.17% ( 0.29) | 64.83% ( -0.29) |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.8% ( -1.29) | 26.2% ( 1.29) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.71% ( -1.76) | 61.29% ( 1.76) |
| Score Analysis |
| SC Farense | Draw | Arouca |
| 1-0 @ 9.4% ( 0.45) 2-1 @ 7.81% ( 0.14)2-0 @ 5.83% ( 0.32)3-1 @ 3.23% ( 0.08)3-0 @ 2.41% ( 0.15)3-2 @ 2.16% ( -0.03)4-1 @ 1% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.59% Total : 34.42% | 1-1 @ 12.59% ( 0.15) 0-0 @ 7.58% ( 0.32)2-2 @ 5.23% ( -0.1)3-3 @ 0.97% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.47% | 0-1 @ 10.15% ( 0.05) 1-2 @ 8.43% ( -0.21)0-2 @ 6.8% ( -0.22)1-3 @ 3.77% ( -0.24)0-3 @ 3.04% ( -0.22)2-3 @ 2.33% ( -0.13)1-4 @ 1.26% ( -0.13)0-4 @ 1.02% ( -0.11)Other @ 2.29% Total : 39.09% |
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