SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 38.02%. A win for Moreirense had a probability of 35.93% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.36%) and 0-2 (6.4%). The likeliest Moreirense win was 1-0 (9.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.37%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Moreirense | Draw | Arouca |
35.93% ( 0.27) | 26.05% ( 0.28) | 38.02% ( -0.55) |
| Both teams to score 54.03% ( -0.92) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.58% ( -1.19) | 50.42% ( 1.2) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.64% ( -1.07) | 72.35% ( 1.07) |
| Moreirense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.91% ( -0.41) | 27.09% ( 0.41) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.53% ( -0.54) | 62.47% ( 0.54) |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.1% ( -0.84) | 25.9% ( 0.85) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.11% ( -1.16) | 60.88% ( 1.16) |
| Score Analysis |
| Moreirense | Draw | Arouca |
| 1-0 @ 9.16% ( 0.33) 2-1 @ 8.08% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 5.98% ( 0.15)3-1 @ 3.52% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 2.61% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 2.38% ( -0.09)4-1 @ 1.15% ( -0.03)Other @ 3.05% Total : 35.93% | 1-1 @ 12.37% ( 0.15) 0-0 @ 7.02% ( 0.33)2-2 @ 5.46% ( -0.13)3-3 @ 1.07% ( -0.07)Other @ 0.13% Total : 26.04% | 0-1 @ 9.48% ( 0.23) 1-2 @ 8.36% ( -0.1)0-2 @ 6.4% ( -0)1-3 @ 3.77% ( -0.14)0-3 @ 2.88% ( -0.07)2-3 @ 2.46% ( -0.12)1-4 @ 1.27% ( -0.08)0-4 @ 0.97% ( -0.05)Other @ 2.42% Total : 38.02% |
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