SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal win with a probability of 60.84%. A draw had a probability of 21.1% and a win for Bolton Wanderers had a probability of 18.08%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal win was 2-0 with a probability of 9.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.96%) and 1-0 (9.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.91%), while for a Bolton Wanderers win it was 1-2 (4.94%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Arsenal would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Arsenal | Draw | Bolton Wanderers |
60.84% ( -0.47) | 21.08% ( 0.18) | 18.08% ( 0.3) |
| Both teams to score 54.61% ( -0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.8% ( -0.3) | 42.2% ( 0.31) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.39% ( -0.31) | 64.61% ( 0.31) |
| Arsenal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.58% ( -0.23) | 13.42% ( 0.24) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 59.63% ( -0.48) | 40.36% ( 0.48) |
| Bolton Wanderers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.08% ( 0.15) | 36.92% ( -0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.29% ( 0.15) | 73.7% ( -0.15) |
| Score Analysis |
| Arsenal | Draw | Bolton Wanderers |
| 2-0 @ 9.99% ( -0.04) 2-1 @ 9.96% ( 0)1-0 @ 9.95% ( 0.05)3-0 @ 6.69% ( -0.08)3-1 @ 6.67% ( -0.06)4-0 @ 3.36% ( -0.07)4-1 @ 3.35% ( -0.06)3-2 @ 3.32% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 1.67% ( -0.02)5-0 @ 1.35% ( -0.04)5-1 @ 1.35% ( -0.04)Other @ 3.19% Total : 60.84% | 1-1 @ 9.91% ( 0.09) 2-2 @ 4.96% ( 0.02)0-0 @ 4.95% ( 0.07)3-3 @ 1.1% ( -0)Other @ 0.15% Total : 21.08% | 1-2 @ 4.94% ( 0.06) 0-1 @ 4.94% ( 0.09)0-2 @ 2.46% ( 0.05)2-3 @ 1.65% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 1.64% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.46% Total : 18.08% |
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