SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 47.29%. A win for Arsenal had a probability of 28.98% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.51%) and 2-0 (7.28%). The likeliest Arsenal win was 1-2 (7.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.98%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
| Result | ||
| Manchester City | Draw | Arsenal |
47.29% ( -1.67) | 23.73% ( 0.41) | 28.98% ( 1.26) |
| Both teams to score 59.36% ( -0.48) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.67% ( -1.05) | 42.33% ( 1.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.27% ( -1.06) | 64.73% ( 1.06) |
| Manchester City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.9% ( -1.04) | 18.1% ( 1.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.96% ( -1.82) | 49.04% ( 1.82) |
| Arsenal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.48% ( 0.34) | 27.52% ( -0.33) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.97% ( 0.44) | 63.03% ( -0.43) |
| Score Analysis |
| Manchester City | Draw | Arsenal |
| 2-1 @ 9.39% ( -0.11) 1-0 @ 8.51% ( 0.11)2-0 @ 7.28% ( -0.16)3-1 @ 5.35% ( -0.25)3-0 @ 4.15% ( -0.24)3-2 @ 3.45% ( -0.13)4-1 @ 2.29% ( -0.19)4-0 @ 1.77% ( -0.17)4-2 @ 1.48% ( -0.11)Other @ 3.63% Total : 47.29% | 1-1 @ 10.98% ( 0.25) 2-2 @ 6.06% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 4.98% ( 0.23)3-3 @ 1.48% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.22% Total : 23.73% | 1-2 @ 7.09% ( 0.22) 0-1 @ 6.43% ( 0.36)0-2 @ 4.15% ( 0.27)1-3 @ 3.05% ( 0.12)2-3 @ 2.61% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 1.78% ( 0.13)1-4 @ 0.98% ( 0.05)Other @ 2.9% Total : 28.98% |
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