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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle United Under-21s win with a probability of 39.71%. A win for Aston Villa Under-21s had a probability of 38.93% and a draw had a probability of 21.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle United Under-21s win was 1-2 with a probability of 7.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (4.9%) and 2-3 (4.61%). The likeliest Aston Villa Under-21s win was 2-1 (7.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.16%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Newcastle United Under-21s would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Aston Villa Under-21s | Draw | Newcastle United Under-21s |
38.93% ( 0.15) | 21.36% ( 0.03) | 39.71% ( -0.18) |
| Both teams to score 72.03% ( -0.12) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 72.74% ( -0.16) | 27.26% ( 0.16) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 52.19% ( -0.2) | 47.82% ( 0.2) |
| Aston Villa Under-21s Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.72% ( -0.01) | 15.28% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 56.02% ( -0.02) | 43.98% ( 0.02) |
| Newcastle United Under-21s Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.02% ( -0.13) | 14.98% ( 0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 56.58% ( -0.25) | 43.42% ( 0.26) |
| Score Analysis |
| Aston Villa Under-21s | Draw | Newcastle United Under-21s |
| 2-1 @ 7.67% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 4.8% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 4.56% ( -0)1-0 @ 4.3% ( 0.04)2-0 @ 4.04% ( 0.04)3-0 @ 2.53% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 2.26% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 2.14% ( -0)4-3 @ 1.36% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 1.19% ( 0.01)Other @ 4.09% Total : 38.93% | 1-1 @ 8.16% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 7.28% ( -0)3-3 @ 2.89% ( -0.02)0-0 @ 2.29% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.75% Total : 21.36% | 1-2 @ 7.75% ( -0) 1-3 @ 4.9% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 4.61% ( -0.02)0-1 @ 4.35% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 4.12% ( 0)0-3 @ 2.61% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 2.33% ( -0.02)2-4 @ 2.19% ( -0.02)3-4 @ 1.37% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 1.24% ( -0.01)Other @ 4.25% Total : 39.71% |
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