SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal Under-21s win with a probability of 40.38%. A win for Aston Villa Under-21s had a probability of 39.64% and a draw had a probability of 20%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal Under-21s win was 2-1 with a probability of 6.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-2 (5.19%) and 3-1 (4.89%). The likeliest Aston Villa Under-21s win was 1-2 (6.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 2-2 (7.26%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Arsenal Under-21s would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Arsenal Under-21s | Draw | Aston Villa Under-21s |
40.38% ( -0.93) | 19.98% ( 0.07) | 39.64% ( 0.86) |
| Both teams to score 77.74% ( -0.23) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 79.88% ( -0.29) | 20.12% ( 0.29) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 61.73% ( -0.41) | 38.26% ( 0.41) |
| Arsenal Under-21s Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.29% ( -0.41) | 11.71% ( 0.41) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 63.17% ( -0.88) | 36.82% ( 0.88) |
| Aston Villa Under-21s Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.05% ( 0.15) | 11.94% ( -0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 62.67% ( 0.32) | 37.32% ( -0.32) |
| Score Analysis |
| Arsenal Under-21s | Draw | Aston Villa Under-21s |
| 2-1 @ 6.84% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 5.19% ( -0.08)3-1 @ 4.89% ( -0.1)2-0 @ 3.22% ( -0.03)1-0 @ 3% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 2.78% ( -0.09)4-1 @ 2.62% ( -0.1)3-0 @ 2.3% ( -0.06)4-3 @ 1.97% ( -0.05)4-0 @ 1.23% ( -0.05)5-2 @ 1.19% ( -0.06)5-1 @ 1.12% ( -0.06)Other @ 4.02% Total : 40.38% | 2-2 @ 7.26% ( 0.01) 1-1 @ 6.37% ( 0.08)3-3 @ 3.68% ( -0.03)0-0 @ 1.4% ( 0.03)4-4 @ 1.05% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.22% Total : 19.98% | 1-2 @ 6.77% ( 0.12) 2-3 @ 5.14% ( 0.04)1-3 @ 4.8% ( 0.11)0-2 @ 3.16% ( 0.11)0-1 @ 2.97% ( 0.08)2-4 @ 2.73% ( 0.04)1-4 @ 2.55% ( 0.08)0-3 @ 2.24% ( 0.09)3-4 @ 1.95% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 1.19% ( 0.05)2-5 @ 1.16% ( 0.02)1-5 @ 1.08% ( 0.04)Other @ 3.89% Total : 39.64% |
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