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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa Under-21s win with a probability of 50.05%. A win for Derby County Under-21s had a probability of 29.92% and a draw had a probability of 20%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa Under-21s win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.14%) and 3-2 (5.37%). The likeliest Derby County Under-21s win was 1-2 (6.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.12%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Aston Villa Under-21s would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Aston Villa Under-21s | Draw | Derby County Under-21s |
50.05% ( -0.36) | 20.03% ( 0.07) | 29.92% ( 0.3) |
| Both teams to score 74.07% ( -0.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 76.5% ( -0.13) | 23.5% ( 0.14) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 57.07% ( -0.18) | 42.93% ( 0.18) |
| Aston Villa Under-21s Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.72% ( -0.14) | 10.28% ( 0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 66.32% ( -0.32) | 33.67% ( 0.33) |
| Derby County Under-21s Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.56% ( 0.08) | 17.44% ( -0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 52.11% ( 0.14) | 47.89% ( -0.13) |
| Score Analysis |
| Aston Villa Under-21s | Draw | Derby County Under-21s |
| 2-1 @ 8.1% ( -0) 3-1 @ 6.14% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 5.37% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 4.64% ( -0.01)1-0 @ 4.08% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 3.52% ( -0.03)4-1 @ 3.49% ( -0.04)4-2 @ 3.05% ( -0.03)4-0 @ 2% ( -0.03)4-3 @ 1.78% ( -0.01)5-1 @ 1.59% ( -0.03)5-2 @ 1.39% ( -0.02)5-0 @ 0.91% ( -0.02)Other @ 4% Total : 50.05% | 1-1 @ 7.12% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 7.08% ( 0.02)3-3 @ 3.12% ( -0)0-0 @ 1.79% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.91% Total : 20.03% | 1-2 @ 6.22% ( 0.05) 2-3 @ 4.12% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 3.62% ( 0.04)0-1 @ 3.13% ( 0.04)0-2 @ 2.74% ( 0.04)2-4 @ 1.8% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 1.59% ( 0.03)1-4 @ 1.58% ( 0.02)3-4 @ 1.36% ( 0)Other @ 3.75% Total : 29.92% |
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