Conceding five goals to a team that had not even registered once in their first six 2024 league matches is surely a harbinger of doom for Criciuma against a Paranaense side needing to right a few wrongs on Thursday.
The hosts may have lost a couple of key players to Copa America call-ups, but as Cuca's men almost always produce the goods at home, they ought to have no trouble pulling themselves out of their rut and prolonging Criciuma's dismal sequence.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletico Paranaense win with a probability of 72.69%. A draw had a probability of 17.3% and a win for Criciuma had a probability of 10.01%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletico Paranaense win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.71%) and 3-0 (9.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.22%), while for a Criciuma win it was 0-1 (3.64%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Athletico Paranaense would win this match.
0.11) 
-0.04) 
