SM
| Current League B Group D Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Antigua and Barbuda | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Guyana | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Puerto Rico | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Bahamas | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Current League C Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Cayman Islands | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | US Virgin Islands | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Aruba | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a US Virgin Islands win with a probability of 65.23%. A draw had a probability of 18.5% and a win for Bahamas had a probability of 16.27%.
The most likely scoreline for a US Virgin Islands win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.83%) and 1-3 (7.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.24%), while for a Bahamas win it was 2-1 (4.5%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Bahamas | Draw | US Virgin Islands |
16.27% ( 0.31) | 18.5% ( 0.19) | 65.23% ( -0.49) |
| Both teams to score 60.11% ( 0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 66.75% ( -0.3) | 33.26% ( 0.3) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 44.98% ( -0.34) | 55.02% ( 0.35) |
| Bahamas Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.49% ( 0.17) | 33.51% ( -0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.85% ( 0.18) | 70.15% ( -0.18) |
| US Virgin Islands Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.41% ( -0.2) | 9.59% ( 0.2) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 67.93% ( -0.47) | 32.08% ( 0.47) |
| Score Analysis |
| Bahamas | Draw | US Virgin Islands |
| 2-1 @ 4.5% ( 0.07) 1-0 @ 3.51% ( 0.07)3-2 @ 1.92% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 1.92% ( 0.05)3-1 @ 1.64% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.76% Total : 16.27% | 1-1 @ 8.24% ( 0.09) 2-2 @ 5.28% ( 0.04)0-0 @ 3.21% ( 0.05)3-3 @ 1.5% ( 0)Other @ 0.27% Total : 18.5% | 1-2 @ 9.66% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 8.83% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 7.55% ( -0.05)0-1 @ 7.54% ( 0.05)0-3 @ 6.9% ( -0.07)1-4 @ 4.42% ( -0.07)2-3 @ 4.13% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 4.05% ( -0.08)2-4 @ 2.42% ( -0.03)1-5 @ 2.07% ( -0.05)0-5 @ 1.9% ( -0.05)2-5 @ 1.13% ( -0.02)Other @ 4.65% Total : 65.23% |
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