SM
| Current League C Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Cayman Islands | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | US Virgin Islands | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Aruba | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Current League C Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Cayman Islands | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | US Virgin Islands | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Aruba | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aruba win with a probability of 50.15%. A win for US Virgin Islands had a probability of 26.55% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aruba win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.75%) and 0-2 (7.78%). The likeliest US Virgin Islands win was 2-1 (6.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.79%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Aruba would win this match.
| Result | ||
| US Virgin Islands | Draw | Aruba |
26.55% ( -1.19) | 23.3% ( -0.65) | 50.15% ( 1.83) |
| Both teams to score 58.89% ( 1.21) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.93% ( 2.05) | 42.07% ( -2.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.53% ( 2.03) | 64.47% ( -2.03) |
| US Virgin Islands Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.88% ( 0.19) | 29.12% ( -0.2) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.95% ( 0.24) | 65.05% ( -0.24) |
| Aruba Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.09% ( 1.48) | 16.91% ( -1.48) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.04% ( 2.57) | 46.96% ( -2.57) |
| Score Analysis |
| US Virgin Islands | Draw | Aruba |
| 2-1 @ 6.66% ( -0.21) 1-0 @ 6.07% ( -0.54)2-0 @ 3.75% ( -0.31)3-1 @ 2.74% ( -0.07)3-2 @ 2.43% ( 0.05)3-0 @ 1.54% ( -0.12)Other @ 3.36% Total : 26.55% | 1-1 @ 10.79% ( -0.41) 2-2 @ 5.92% ( 0.1)0-0 @ 4.92% ( -0.47)3-3 @ 1.44% ( 0.1)Other @ 0.22% Total : 23.29% | 1-2 @ 9.6% ( 0.11) 0-1 @ 8.75% ( -0.38)0-2 @ 7.78% ( 0.05)1-3 @ 5.69% ( 0.33)0-3 @ 4.61% ( 0.25)2-3 @ 3.51% ( 0.22)1-4 @ 2.53% ( 0.26)0-4 @ 2.05% ( 0.2)2-4 @ 1.56% ( 0.17)Other @ 4.1% Total : 50.15% |
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