SM
| Current League C Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Cayman Islands | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | US Virgin Islands | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Aruba | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Current League B Group D Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Antigua and Barbuda | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Guyana | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Puerto Rico | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Bahamas | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a US Virgin Islands win with a probability of 45.1%. A win for Bahamas had a probability of 32.68% and a draw had a probability of 22.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a US Virgin Islands win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.96%) and 2-0 (5.59%). The likeliest Bahamas win was 1-2 (7.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.38%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| US Virgin Islands | Draw | Bahamas |
45.1% ( -6.34) | 22.21% ( 0.28) | 32.68% ( 6.06) |
| Both teams to score 67.13% ( 3.25) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 66.97% ( 2.51) | 33.03% ( -2.51) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 45.25% ( 2.83) | 54.75% ( -2.83) |
| US Virgin Islands Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.68% ( -1.23) | 15.32% ( 1.23) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 55.93% ( -2.36) | 44.07% ( 2.36) |
| Bahamas Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.27% ( 4.92) | 20.72% ( -4.92) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.66% ( 7.2) | 53.34% ( -7.2) |
| Score Analysis |
| US Virgin Islands | Draw | Bahamas |
| 2-1 @ 8.79% ( -0.65) 1-0 @ 5.96% ( -1.12)2-0 @ 5.59% ( -1.35)3-1 @ 5.5% ( -0.67)3-2 @ 4.33% ( 0.13)3-0 @ 3.49% ( -1.04)4-1 @ 2.58% ( -0.44)4-2 @ 2.03% ( -0.03)4-0 @ 1.64% ( -0.58)4-3 @ 1.06% ( 0.13)5-1 @ 0.97% ( -0.22)Other @ 3.17% Total : 45.11% | 1-1 @ 9.38% ( -0.26) 2-2 @ 6.92% ( 0.49)0-0 @ 3.18% ( -0.44)3-3 @ 2.27% ( 0.37)Other @ 0.47% Total : 22.21% | 1-2 @ 7.38% ( 0.82) 0-1 @ 5% ( 0.08)0-2 @ 3.93% ( 0.59)1-3 @ 3.87% ( 0.9)2-3 @ 3.63% ( 0.72)0-3 @ 2.06% ( 0.55)1-4 @ 1.52% ( 0.51)2-4 @ 1.43% ( 0.44)Other @ 3.86% Total : 32.68% |
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