Bahia boast the best home record in the division and are one of only two teams still perfect in front of their fans this term. We can see them cruising to a relatively comfortable win in the end. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bahia win with a probability of 61.82%. A draw had a probability of 22.4% and a win for Vasco da Gama had a probability of 15.75%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bahia win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.2%) and 2-1 (9.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.58%), while for a Vasco da Gama win it was 0-1 (5.83%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bahia would win this match.

Result
Bahia	Draw	Vasco da Gama
61.82% ( 0.13)	22.43% ( -0.01)	15.75% ( -0.12)

Both teams to score 45.63% (

-0.21)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.24% (

-0.15)

51.76% (

0.15)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.47% (

-0.13)

73.53% (

0.13)

Bahia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.73% (

-0.01)

16.27% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

54.19% (

-0.02)

45.81% (

0.02)

Vasco da Gama Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

54.49% (

-0.24)

45.5% (

0.24)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

18.67% (

-0.19)

81.33% (

0.19)

Score Analysis

Bahia 61.81%

Vasco da Gama 15.75%

Draw 22.42%

Bahia	Draw	Vasco da Gama
1-0 @ 13.44% ( 0.08) 2-0 @ 12.2% ( 0.06) 2-1 @ 9.61% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 7.39% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 5.82% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 3.35% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 2.64% ( -0) 3-2 @ 2.29% ( -0.02) 5-0 @ 1.22% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.04% ( -0.01) 5-1 @ 0.96% ( -0) Other @ 1.85% Total : 61.81%	1-1 @ 10.58% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 7.4% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 3.78% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.66% Total : 22.42%	0-1 @ 5.83% ( -0) 1-2 @ 4.17% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 2.3% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 1.09% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 0.99% ( -0.02) Other @ 1.37% Total : 15.75%