Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bahia win with a probability of 51.38%. A draw had a probability of 24.5% and a win for Vasco da Gama had a probability of 24.09%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bahia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.6%) and 2-0 (9.18%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.65%), while for a Vasco da Gama win it was 0-1 (7.08%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.7% likelihood.
0.48) 
-0.52) 
