Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vasco da Gama win with a probability of 49.49%. A draw had a probability of 25.8% and a win for Bahia had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vasco da Gama win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.36%) and 2-1 (9.3%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.22%), while for a Bahia win it was 0-1 (8.04%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8% likelihood.
0.23) 
-0.04) 
