SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 52.01%. A win for Braga had a probability of 24.63% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.53%) and 2-0 (8.46%). The likeliest Braga win was 1-2 (6.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.95%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Benfica | Draw | Braga |
52.01% ( -0.26) | 23.36% ( 0.19) | 24.63% ( 0.06) |
| Both teams to score 56.75% ( -0.59) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.97% ( -0.81) | 44.03% ( 0.81) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.59% ( -0.79) | 66.41% ( 0.8) |
| Benfica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.05% ( -0.39) | 16.95% ( 0.39) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 52.96% ( -0.69) | 47.04% ( 0.7) |
| Braga Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.33% ( -0.38) | 31.67% ( 0.39) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.91% ( -0.44) | 68.09% ( 0.45) |
| Score Analysis |
| Benfica | Draw | Braga |
| 2-1 @ 9.72% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 9.53% ( 0.21)2-0 @ 8.46% ( 0.08)3-1 @ 5.75% ( -0.08)3-0 @ 5% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 3.31% ( -0.08)4-1 @ 2.55% ( -0.07)4-0 @ 2.22% ( -0.04)4-2 @ 1.47% ( -0.06)5-1 @ 0.91% ( -0.04)Other @ 3.1% Total : 52.01% | 1-1 @ 10.95% ( 0.13) 2-2 @ 5.59% ( -0.07)0-0 @ 5.37% ( 0.19)3-3 @ 1.27% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.18% Total : 23.35% | 1-2 @ 6.3% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 6.17% ( 0.15)0-2 @ 3.55% ( 0.05)1-3 @ 2.41% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 2.14% ( -0.05)0-3 @ 1.36% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.7% Total : 24.63% |
ISOCountry Code:
Matched Country Groups:
