SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 3 | Benfica | 33 | 47 | 71 |
| 4 | Braga | 32 | 20 | 62 |
| 5 | Gil Vicente | 33 | 10 | 51 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 2 | Sporting Lisbon | 33 | 47 | 82 |
| 3 | Benfica | 33 | 47 | 71 |
| 4 | Braga | 32 | 20 | 62 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 39.08%. A win for Benfica had a probability of 35.18% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.53%) and 2-0 (6.5%). The likeliest Benfica win was 0-1 (8.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.2%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Braga would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Braga | Draw | Benfica |
| 39.08% | 25.74% | 35.18% |
| Both teams to score 55.02% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.88% | 49.12% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.81% | 71.19% |
| Braga Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.27% | 24.72% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 40.72% | 59.27% |
| Benfica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.09% | 26.91% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 37.76% | 62.24% |
| Score Analysis |
| Braga | Draw | Benfica |
| 1-0 @ 9.3% 2-1 @ 8.53% 2-0 @ 6.5% 3-1 @ 3.97% 3-0 @ 3.03% 3-2 @ 2.61% 4-1 @ 1.39% 4-0 @ 1.06% 4-2 @ 0.91% Other @ 1.8% Total : 39.08% | 1-1 @ 12.2% 0-0 @ 6.65% 2-2 @ 5.6% 3-3 @ 1.14% Other @ 0.14% Total : 25.73% | 0-1 @ 8.73% 1-2 @ 8.01% 0-2 @ 5.73% 1-3 @ 3.51% 0-3 @ 2.51% 2-3 @ 2.45% 1-4 @ 1.15% Other @ 3.09% Total : 35.18% |
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