SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 73.5%. A draw had a probability of 16% and a win for Gil Vicente had a probability of 10.46%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.32%) and 3-0 (9.3%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.51%), while for a Gil Vicente win it was 1-2 (3.11%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Benfica | Draw | Gil Vicente |
73.5% ( -0.04) | 16.03% ( -0) | 10.46% ( 0.04) |
| Both teams to score 51.58% ( 0.18) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.21% ( 0.15) | 35.79% ( -0.16) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 42.13% ( 0.17) | 57.86% ( -0.17) |
| Benfica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.62% ( 0.03) | 8.38% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 70.85% ( 0.07) | 29.15% ( -0.07) |
| Gil Vicente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 56.3% ( 0.18) | 43.7% ( -0.18) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 20.12% ( 0.15) | 79.88% ( -0.15) |
| Score Analysis |
| Benfica | Draw | Gil Vicente |
| 2-0 @ 11.25% ( -0.05) 2-1 @ 9.32% ( 0)3-0 @ 9.3% ( -0.03)1-0 @ 9.08% ( -0.06)3-1 @ 7.7% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 5.77% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 4.77% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 3.19% ( 0.02)5-0 @ 2.86% ( -0)5-1 @ 2.37% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.98% ( 0.02)6-0 @ 1.18% ( 0)5-2 @ 0.98% ( 0.01)6-1 @ 0.98% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.78% Total : 73.5% | 1-1 @ 7.51% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 3.86% ( 0.02)0-0 @ 3.66% ( -0.03)Other @ 1% Total : 16.03% | 1-2 @ 3.11% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 3.03% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 1.25% ( 0)2-3 @ 1.06% ( 0.01)Other @ 2% Total : 10.46% |
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