Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 59.64%. A draw had a probability of 21.7% and a win for Gil Vicente had a probability of 18.71%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.05%) and 1-2 (9.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.23%), while for a Gil Vicente win it was 1-0 (5.26%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
Result | ||
Gil Vicente | Draw | Benfica |
18.71% ( -0.07) | 21.66% ( -0.01) | 59.64% ( 0.08) |
Both teams to score 53.86% ( -0.1) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
56.21% ( -0.07) | 43.79% ( 0.07) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
33.82% ( -0.07) | 66.18% ( 0.07) |
Gil Vicente Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
62.84% ( -0.11) | 37.16% ( 0.12) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
26.06% ( -0.11) | 73.95% ( 0.11) |
Benfica Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
85.71% ( 0) | 14.3% ( -0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
57.89% ( 0) | 42.11% ( -0) |
Score Analysis |
Gil Vicente | Draw | Benfica |
1-0 @ 5.26% 2-1 @ 5.06% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 2.6% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 1.67% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 1.63% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.49% Total : 18.71% | 1-1 @ 10.23% 0-0 @ 5.31% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 4.92% ( -0.02) 3-3 @ 1.05% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.14% Total : 21.66% | 0-1 @ 10.33% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 10.05% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 9.95% ( -0) 0-3 @ 6.52% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 6.45% 2-3 @ 3.19% ( -0.01) 0-4 @ 3.17% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 3.14% 2-4 @ 1.55% ( -0) 0-5 @ 1.23% ( 0) 1-5 @ 1.22% Other @ 2.83% Total : 59.63% |
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