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League One | Gameweek 11
Oct 3, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
Bloomfield Road
DL

Blackpool
1 - 3
Derby

Dougall (73')
Connolly (30')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Smith (54'), Collins (71'), Waghorn (89')
Forsyth (32')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Barnsley 0-1 Blackpool
Saturday, September 30 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Derby 0-0 Cambridge
Saturday, September 30 at 3pm in League One

We said: Blackpool 1-1 Derby County

With Blackpool and Derby separated by just one point in the league table, we expect Tuesday's contest to produce a close-fought affair, which may result in the spoils being shared. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 38.39%. A win for Blackpool had a probability of 34.67% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.27%) and 0-2 (6.81%). The likeliest Blackpool win was 1-0 (9.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result
BlackpoolDrawDerby County
34.67% (-0.218 -0.22) 26.95% (0.068999999999999 0.07) 38.39% (0.149 0.15)
Both teams to score 50.97% (-0.242 -0.24)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
45.75% (-0.297 -0.3)54.25% (0.296 0.3)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
24.35% (-0.247 -0.25)75.65% (0.24799999999999 0.25)
Blackpool Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.28% (-0.283 -0.28)29.72% (0.284 0.28)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
34.22% (-0.346 -0.35)65.78% (0.34699999999999 0.35)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.52% (-0.054000000000002 -0.05)27.48% (0.053999999999998 0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37.02% (-0.070999999999998 -0.07)62.98% (0.070999999999998 0.07)
Score Analysis
    Blackpool 34.67%
    Derby County 38.38%
    Draw 26.95%
BlackpoolDrawDerby County
1-0 @ 9.91% (0.037000000000001 0.04)
2-1 @ 7.77% (-0.044 -0.04)
2-0 @ 6.01% (-0.025 -0.03)
3-1 @ 3.14% (-0.042 -0.04)
3-0 @ 2.43% (-0.03 -0.03)
3-2 @ 2.03% (-0.031 -0.03)
4-1 @ 0.95% (-0.021 -0.02)
Other @ 2.42%
Total : 34.67%
1-1 @ 12.8% (0.030000000000001 0.03)
0-0 @ 8.17% (0.095000000000001 0.1)
2-2 @ 5.02% (-0.036 -0.04)
Other @ 0.96%
Total : 26.95%
0-1 @ 10.54% (0.1 0.1)
1-2 @ 8.27% (0.0050000000000008 0.01)
0-2 @ 6.81% (0.057 0.06)
1-3 @ 3.56% (-0.0029999999999997 -0)
0-3 @ 2.93% (0.02 0.02)
2-3 @ 2.16% (-0.02 -0.02)
1-4 @ 1.15% (-0.0029999999999999 -0)
0-4 @ 0.95% (0.005 0.01)
Other @ 2.01%
Total : 38.38%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Barnsley 0-1 Blackpool
Saturday, September 30 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Blackpool 4-1 Reading
Saturday, September 23 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Wycombe 2-0 Blackpool
Saturday, September 16 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Barrow 0-2 Blackpool
Tuesday, September 5 at 7pm in EFL Trophy
Last Game: Blackpool 2-1 Wigan
Saturday, September 2 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Wolves 5-0 Blackpool
Tuesday, August 29 at 7.45pm in EFL Cup
Last Game: Derby 0-0 Cambridge
Saturday, September 30 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Carlisle 0-2 Derby
Saturday, September 23 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Derby 2-0 Lincoln
Tuesday, September 19 at 7pm in EFL Trophy
Last Game: Derby 1-1 Portsmouth
Saturday, September 16 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Bolton 2-1 Derby
Saturday, September 2 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Peterborough 2-4 Derby
Saturday, August 26 at 3pm in League One


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