Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 42.56%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 30.88% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.77%) and 0-2 (7.68%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 1-0 (9.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.62%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.
-0.22) 
0.23) 
