SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 55.81%. A draw had a probability of 23.5% and a win for Fleetwood Town had a probability of 20.68%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.12%) and 2-1 (9.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.17%), while for a Fleetwood Town win it was 0-1 (6.39%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Derby County in this match.
| Result | ||
| Derby County | Draw | Fleetwood Town |
55.81% ( -0.14) | 23.5% ( 0.01) | 20.68% ( 0.13) |
| Both teams to score 51.2% ( 0.18) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.05% ( 0.14) | 48.95% ( -0.14) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.96% ( 0.13) | 71.04% ( -0.13) |
| Derby County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.63% ( 0) | 17.37% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 52.22% ( 0) | 47.77% ( -0) |
| Fleetwood Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.95% ( 0.22) | 38.04% ( -0.22) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.19% ( 0.21) | 74.81% ( -0.21) |
| Score Analysis |
| Derby County | Draw | Fleetwood Town |
| 1-0 @ 11.56% ( -0.07) 2-0 @ 10.12% ( -0.06)2-1 @ 9.78% ( 0)3-0 @ 5.91% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 5.71% ( 0)3-2 @ 2.76% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 2.59% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 2.5% ( 0)4-2 @ 1.21% ( 0.01)5-0 @ 0.91% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.77% Total : 55.8% | 1-1 @ 11.17% 0-0 @ 6.61% ( -0.04)2-2 @ 4.73% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.99% Total : 23.5% | 0-1 @ 6.39% 1-2 @ 5.4% ( 0.03)0-2 @ 3.09% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 1.74% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 1.52% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 0.99% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.55% Total : 20.68% |
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