Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 39.1%. A win for Bolton Wanderers had a probability of 34.42% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.43%) and 0-2 (6.81%). The likeliest Bolton Wanderers win was 1-0 (9.41%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.59%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood.
0.03) 
-0.03) 
