Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 41.23%. A win for Portsmouth had a probability of 32.08% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.62%) and 2-0 (7.39%). The likeliest Portsmouth win was 0-1 (9.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.68%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.7% likelihood.
0.09) 
-0.12) 
