Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Botafogo win with a probability of 71.27%. A draw had a probability of 18.9% and a win for Coritiba had a probability of 9.82%.
The most likely scoreline for a Botafogo win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (14.48%) and 3-0 (10.08%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.73%), while for a Coritiba win it was 0-1 (4.27%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Botafogo would win this match.
0.52) 
-0.21) 
