Coritiba will have gained a little bit of confidence from their maiden Brasileiro win last time out, and they now have a good opportunity to record back-to-back successes as America come to town.
Mineiro have impressed in cup competitions of late but have struggled in the league, however we believe the visitors will be good enough for a point on Saturday afternoon.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Coritiba win with a probability of 39.59%. A win for America Mineiro had a probability of 32.78% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Coritiba win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.25%) and 2-0 (7.33%). The likeliest America Mineiro win was 0-1 (10.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.03%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Coritiba would win this match.
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