SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burnley win with a probability of 47.23%. A win for Watford had a probability of 27.98% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Burnley win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.38%) and 2-0 (8%). The likeliest Watford win was 0-1 (7.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.73%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Burnley would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Burnley | Draw | Watford |
47.23% ( 0.22) | 24.79% ( -0.04) | 27.98% ( -0.18) |
| Both teams to score 55.05% ( -0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.32% ( 0.04) | 47.68% ( -0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.13% ( 0.04) | 69.88% ( -0.04) |
| Burnley Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.76% ( 0.11) | 20.25% ( -0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.42% ( 0.17) | 52.58% ( -0.17) |
| Watford Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.03% ( -0.11) | 30.97% ( 0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.73% ( -0.13) | 67.28% ( 0.13) |
| Score Analysis |
| Burnley | Draw | Watford |
| 1-0 @ 10.01% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 9.38% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 8% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 4.99% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 4.26% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 2.93% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 1.99% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 1.7% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 1.17% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.8% Total : 47.22% | 1-1 @ 11.73% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 6.27% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 5.49% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 1.14% ( -0)Other @ 0.15% Total : 24.78% | 0-1 @ 7.35% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 6.88% ( -0.03)0-2 @ 4.31% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 2.69% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 2.15% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 1.68% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.93% Total : 27.98% |
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