SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stoke City win with a probability of 41.24%. A win for Burnley had a probability of 31.68% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stoke City win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.54%) and 2-0 (7.55%). The likeliest Burnley win was 0-1 (9.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.83%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Burnley would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Stoke City | Draw | Burnley |
41.24% ( 0.12) | 27.08% ( 0.03) | 31.68% ( -0.16) |
| Both teams to score 49.86% ( -0.14) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.67% ( -0.16) | 55.33% ( 0.16) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.46% ( -0.13) | 76.54% ( 0.13) |
| Stoke City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.59% ( -0.01) | 26.41% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.43% ( -0.01) | 61.57% ( 0.01) |
| Burnley Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.75% ( -0.19) | 32.25% ( 0.19) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.25% ( -0.21) | 68.75% ( 0.21) |
| Score Analysis |
| Stoke City | Draw | Burnley |
| 1-0 @ 11.34% ( 0.07) 2-1 @ 8.54% ( 0)2-0 @ 7.55% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 3.79% ( 0)3-0 @ 3.35% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 2.15% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.26% 4-0 @ 1.12% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.15% Total : 41.24% | 1-1 @ 12.83% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 8.52% ( 0.05)2-2 @ 4.83% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.89% Total : 27.07% | 0-1 @ 9.64% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 7.26% ( -0.03)0-2 @ 5.45% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 2.74% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 2.06% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 1.82% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.71% Total : 31.68% |
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