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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burnley win with a probability of 50.97%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 24.72% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Burnley win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.62%) and 2-0 (8.87%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (6.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.54%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Burnley | Draw | Derby County |
50.97% ( -1.06) | 24.31% ( 0.15) | 24.72% ( 0.91) |
| Both teams to score 53.7% ( 0.53) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.89% ( 0.23) | 48.11% ( -0.23) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.73% ( 0.21) | 70.27% ( -0.21) |
| Burnley Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.12% ( -0.33) | 18.88% ( 0.32) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.64% ( -0.54) | 50.36% ( 0.54) |
| Derby County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.19% ( 0.91) | 33.81% ( -0.91) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.53% ( 0.98) | 70.47% ( -0.98) |
| Score Analysis |
| Burnley | Draw | Derby County |
| 1-0 @ 10.64% ( -0.21) 2-1 @ 9.62% ( -0.05)2-0 @ 8.87% ( -0.27)3-1 @ 5.34% ( -0.08)3-0 @ 4.93% ( -0.2)3-2 @ 2.9% ( 0.03)4-1 @ 2.23% ( -0.06)4-0 @ 2.05% ( -0.11)4-2 @ 1.21% ( -0)Other @ 3.18% Total : 50.97% | 1-1 @ 11.54% ( 0.06) 0-0 @ 6.38% ( -0.06)2-2 @ 5.22% ( 0.1)3-3 @ 1.05% ( 0.04)Other @ 0.13% Total : 24.32% | 0-1 @ 6.92% ( 0.11) 1-2 @ 6.26% ( 0.19)0-2 @ 3.75% ( 0.15)1-3 @ 2.26% ( 0.12)2-3 @ 1.89% ( 0.08)0-3 @ 1.36% ( 0.09)Other @ 2.28% Total : 24.72% |
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