Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 46.07%. A win for Celje had a probability of 29.2% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.29%) and 0-2 (7.63%). The likeliest Celje win was 1-0 (7.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.67%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vitoria de Guimaraes would win this match.
0.37) 
-0.01) 
