SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerro win with a probability of 38.45%. A win for Rampla Juniors had a probability of 32.14% and a draw had a probability of 29.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cerro win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.64%) and 2-0 (7.53%). The likeliest Rampla Juniors win was 0-1 (11.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.41%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cerro would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Cerro | Draw | Rampla Juniors |
38.45% ( -0.02) | 29.41% ( 0) | 32.14% ( 0.02) |
| Both teams to score 43.38% ( -0) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 36.54% ( -0) | 63.46% ( 0) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 17.2% ( -0) | 82.8% ( 0) |
| Cerro Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.01% ( -0.02) | 31.98% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.55% ( -0.02) | 68.44% ( 0.02) |
| Rampla Juniors Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.78% ( 0.02) | 36.21% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27% ( 0.02) | 73% ( -0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Cerro | Draw | Rampla Juniors |
| 1-0 @ 13.2% 2-1 @ 7.64% ( -0)2-0 @ 7.53% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 2.91% ( -0)3-0 @ 2.86% ( -0)3-2 @ 1.48% ( -0)Other @ 2.83% Total : 38.44% | 1-1 @ 13.41% 0-0 @ 11.58% 2-2 @ 3.88% Other @ 0.54% Total : 29.41% | 0-1 @ 11.76% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 6.81% ( 0)0-2 @ 5.98% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 2.31% ( 0)0-3 @ 2.02% ( 0)2-3 @ 1.31% Other @ 1.95% Total : 32.14% |
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