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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chesham United win with a probability of 44.4%. A win for AFC Hornchurch had a probability of 28.94% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chesham United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.89%) and 2-0 (8.22%). The likeliest AFC Hornchurch win was 0-1 (8.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.64%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Chesham United | Draw | AFC Hornchurch |
44.4% ( 2.34) | 26.65% ( 0.07) | 28.94% ( -2.41) |
| Both teams to score 49.87% ( -1.36) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.28% ( -1.21) | 54.72% ( 1.21) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.96% ( -1.01) | 76.04% ( 1.01) |
| Chesham United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.49% ( 0.64) | 24.51% ( -0.64) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.02% ( 0.88) | 58.98% ( -0.89) |
| AFC Hornchurch Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.07% ( -2.39) | 33.93% ( 2.39) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.39% ( -2.67) | 70.61% ( 2.66) |
| Score Analysis |
| Chesham United | Draw | AFC Hornchurch |
| 1-0 @ 11.69% ( 0.74) 2-1 @ 8.89% ( 0.16)2-0 @ 8.22% ( 0.66)3-1 @ 4.16% ( 0.15)3-0 @ 3.85% ( 0.38)3-2 @ 2.25% ( -0.06)4-1 @ 1.46% ( 0.08)4-0 @ 1.35% ( 0.15)Other @ 2.52% Total : 44.4% | 1-1 @ 12.64% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 8.32% ( 0.38)2-2 @ 4.8% ( -0.23)Other @ 0.89% Total : 26.65% | 0-1 @ 8.99% ( -0.16) 1-2 @ 6.83% ( -0.46)0-2 @ 4.86% ( -0.42)1-3 @ 2.46% ( -0.34)0-3 @ 1.75% ( -0.28)2-3 @ 1.73% ( -0.2)Other @ 2.32% Total : 28.94% |
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