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National League South | Gameweek 16
Nov 5, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
Hornchurch Stadium

Hornchurch
1 - 0
Hemel Hemps.

Nash (14')
Greenidge (40'), Phillips (43'), Terry (83')
FT(HT: 1-0)

German (52'), Howe (79')
Howe (85')
Coverage of the National League South clash between AFC Hornchurch and Hemel Hempstead Town.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Hornchurch 2-1 Torquay Utd
Saturday, October 26 at 3pm in National League South
Last Game: Hemel Hemps. 2-5 Eastbourne
Saturday, November 2 at 3pm in National League South

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AFC Hornchurch win with a probability of 42.98%. A win for Hemel Hempstead Town had a probability of 30.46% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.

The most likely scoreline for an AFC Hornchurch win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.8%) and 2-0 (7.79%). The likeliest Hemel Hempstead Town win was 0-1 (9.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.62%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for AFC Hornchurch in this match.

Result
AFC HornchurchDrawHemel Hempstead Town
42.98% (0.0030000000000001 0) 26.56%30.46%
Both teams to score 50.91% (-0.0020000000000024 -0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
46.25% (-0.00099999999999767 -0)53.75% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
24.77% (-0.00099999999999767 -0)75.23% (0.0030000000000001 0)
AFC Hornchurch Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.21% (0.0010000000000048 0)24.79% (0.00099999999999767 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
40.63%59.37% (0.00099999999999767 0)
Hemel Hempstead Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.7% (-0.0019999999999953 -0)32.31% (0.0039999999999978 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.2% (-0.0019999999999989 -0)68.81% (0.0040000000000049 0)
Score Analysis
    AFC Hornchurch 42.98%
    Hemel Hempstead Town 30.46%
    Draw 26.56%
AFC HornchurchDrawHemel Hempstead Town
1-0 @ 11.17% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-1 @ 8.8%
2-0 @ 7.79% (0.00099999999999945 0)
3-1 @ 4.09%
3-0 @ 3.62%
3-2 @ 2.31%
4-1 @ 1.43%
4-0 @ 1.26% (0.00099999999999989 0)
Other @ 2.51%
Total : 42.98%
1-1 @ 12.62%
0-0 @ 8.01% (0.0010000000000012 0)
2-2 @ 4.97% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
Other @ 0.96%
Total : 26.56%
0-1 @ 9.05%
1-2 @ 7.13%
0-2 @ 5.11%
1-3 @ 2.69%
0-3 @ 1.93%
2-3 @ 1.87%
Other @ 2.68%
Total : 30.46%

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Form Guide
Last Game: Hornchurch 2-1 Torquay Utd
Saturday, October 26 at 3pm in National League South
Last Game: Boreham Wood 1-1 Hornchurch
Wednesday, October 23 at 7.45pm in National League South
Last Game: Hornchurch 0-0 Bath City
Saturday, October 19 at 3pm in National League South
Last Game: Salisbury 2-2 Hornchurch
Saturday, October 12 at 3pm in National League South
Last Game: Dorking 3-1 Hornchurch
Saturday, October 5 at 3pm in National League South
Last Game: Hornchurch 1-3 Leiston
Tuesday, October 1 at 7.45pm in FA Cup
Last Game: Hemel Hemps. 2-5 Eastbourne
Saturday, November 2 at 3pm in National League South
Last Game: Maidstone 1-0 Hemel Hemps.
Saturday, October 26 at 3pm in National League South
Last Game: Hemel Hemps. 2-2 Chelmsford City
Monday, October 21 at 7.45pm in National League South
Last Game: Chippenham 3-0 Hemel Hemps.
Saturday, October 19 at 3pm in National League South
Last Game: Dorking 3-2 Hemel Hemps.
Saturday, October 12 at 3pm in National League South
Last Game: Truro City 1-0 Hemel Hemps.
Saturday, October 5 at 3pm in National League South


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