SM
| Current Group D Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Colombia | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | Brazil | 3 | 3 | 5 |
| 3 | Costa Rica | 3 | -2 | 4 |
| 4 | Paraguay | 3 | -5 | 0 |
| Current League A Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Panama | 4 | 7 | 10 |
| 2 | Trinidad and Tobago | 4 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | Martinique | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 4 | Guatemala | 4 | -2 | 4 |
| 5 | Curacao | 4 | -1 | 3 |
| 6 | El Salvador | 4 | -4 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Costa Rica win with a probability of 42.86%. A win for Guatemala had a probability of 32.24% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Costa Rica win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9%) and 2-0 (6.92%). The likeliest Guatemala win was 0-1 (7.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.71%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Costa Rica would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Costa Rica | Draw | Guatemala |
42.86% ( -3.7) | 24.9% ( 0.66) | 32.24% ( 3.05) |
| Both teams to score 57.1% ( -0.63) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.92% ( -1.54) | 46.08% ( 1.54) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.62% ( -1.47) | 68.38% ( 1.48) |
| Costa Rica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.48% ( -2.25) | 21.52% ( 2.26) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.42% ( -3.59) | 54.58% ( 3.59) |
| Guatemala Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.75% ( 1.25) | 27.25% ( -1.25) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.32% ( 1.6) | 62.68% ( -1.59) |
| Score Analysis |
| Costa Rica | Draw | Guatemala |
| 1-0 @ 9.01% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 9% ( -0.35)2-0 @ 6.92% ( -0.53)3-1 @ 4.61% ( -0.53)3-0 @ 3.54% ( -0.54)3-2 @ 3% ( -0.23)4-1 @ 1.77% ( -0.34)4-0 @ 1.36% ( -0.32)4-2 @ 1.15% ( -0.18)Other @ 2.52% Total : 42.86% | 1-1 @ 11.71% ( 0.36) 0-0 @ 5.86% ( 0.38)2-2 @ 5.85% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 1.3% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.18% Total : 24.9% | 0-1 @ 7.62% ( 0.73) 1-2 @ 7.61% ( 0.49)0-2 @ 4.96% ( 0.63)1-3 @ 3.3% ( 0.32)2-3 @ 2.54% ( 0.08)0-3 @ 2.15% ( 0.34)1-4 @ 1.07% ( 0.14)Other @ 2.99% Total : 32.24% |
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