Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cremonese win with a probability of 41.99%. A win for Bari had a probability of 31.28% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cremonese win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.68%) and 2-0 (7.6%). The likeliest Bari win was 0-1 (9.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.69%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood.
0.02) 
-0.03) 
