Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bari win with a probability of 41.78%. A win for Parma had a probability of 31.14% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bari win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.59%) and 2-0 (7.69%). The likeliest Parma win was 0-1 (9.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.83%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2% likelihood.
0.09) 
-0.18) 
