Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Genoa win with a probability of 57.34%. A draw had a probability of 25.7% and a win for Bari had a probability of 16.99%.
The most likely scoreline for a Genoa win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.57%) and 2-1 (8.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.5%), while for a Bari win it was 0-1 (7.48%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Genoa would win this match.
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