While Criciuma held high-flying Bahia 2-2 in their last home match, the home side's defensive weakness in front of their supporters allied with Botafogo's expertise on the road should see the visiting side notch maximum points on Saturday.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Botafogo win with a probability of 45.01%. A win for Criciuma had a probability of 27.95% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Botafogo win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.82%) and 0-2 (8.57%). The likeliest Criciuma win was 1-0 (9.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.75%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood.
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