SM
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Spain | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| 2 | Italy | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Albania | 2 | -1 | 1 |
| 4 | Croatia | 2 | -3 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy win with a probability of 37.74%. A win for Croatia had a probability of 36.78% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Italy win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.38%) and 0-2 (6.12%). The likeliest Croatia win was 1-0 (8.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.04%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
| Result | ||
| Croatia | Draw | Italy |
36.78% ( 0.15) | 25.48% ( -0.02) | 37.74% ( -0.13) |
| Both teams to score 56.05% ( 0.07) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.14% ( 0.09) | 47.85% ( -0.09) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.96% ( 0.08) | 70.03% ( -0.09) |
| Croatia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.6% ( 0.12) | 25.4% ( -0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.79% ( 0.17) | 60.2% ( -0.17) |
| Italy Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.13% ( -0.03) | 24.87% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.52% ( -0.04) | 59.47% ( 0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Croatia | Draw | Italy |
| 1-0 @ 8.66% ( -0) 2-1 @ 8.26% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 5.93% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 3.77% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 2.71% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 2.62% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 1.29% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 0.93% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.61% Total : 36.78% | 1-1 @ 12.04% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 6.32% ( -0.02)2-2 @ 5.74% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.22% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.16% Total : 25.47% | 0-1 @ 8.79% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 8.38% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 6.12% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 3.89% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 2.84% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 2.66% ( 0)1-4 @ 1.35% ( -0)0-4 @ 0.99% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 0.93% Other @ 1.8% Total : 37.74% |
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